INTRODUCTION: Why This Isn’t a Poker Book

📌 lured ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:47:24

📌 strayed ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:52:27

📌 faring ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:54:00

📌 grizzled ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:56:08

📌 ranchers ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:56:25

📌 Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. ⏱ 2024-10-09 11:58:41

📌 Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about. ⏱ 2024-10-09 12:06:10

CHAPTER 1: Life Is Poker, Not Chess

📌 handoff ⏱ 2024-10-09 12:08:59

📌 pundit ⏱ 2024-10-09 12:10:44

📌 interception ⏱ 2024-10-09 17:54:09

📌 dissenting ⏱ 2024-10-09 17:54:45

📌 dent ⏱ 2024-10-09 17:54:56

📌 avalanche ⏱ 2024-10-09 17:55:11

📌 contrarian ⏱ 2024-10-09 17:55:31

📌 Pete Carroll was a victim of our tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:00:08

📌 preceding ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:02:03

📌 hazards ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:02:35

📌 But, as I found out from my own experiences in poker, resulting is a routine thinking pattern that bedevils all of us. ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:04:29

📌 have yet to come across someone who doesn’t identify their best and worst results rather than their best and worst decisions. ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:10:40

📌 anguish ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:19:45

📌 succumbing ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:20:27

📌 hindsight ⏱ 2024-10-09 18:21:07

📌 pan out ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:07:50

📌 indisputable ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:08:31

📌 No sober person thinks getting home safely after driving drunk reflects a good decision or good driving ability. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:10:02

📌 deluding ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:09:28

📌 plagued ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:11:24

📌 We recognize the existence of luck, but we resist the idea that, despite our best efforts, things might not work out the way we want. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:12:50

📌 wreak havoc ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:13:05

📌 rustling ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:14:02

📌 Incorrectly interpreting rustling from the wind as an oncoming lion is called a type I error, a false positive. The consequences of such an error were much less grave than those of a type II error, a false negative. A false negative could have been fatal: hearing rustling and always assuming it’s the wind would have gotten our ancestors eaten, and we wouldn’t be here. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:16:45

📌 Seeking certainty helped keep us alive all this time, but it can wreak havoc on our decisions in an uncertain world. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:17:30

📌 susceptible ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:17:44

📌 cherry-picking ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:18:43

📌 pegs ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:19:12

📌 deliberative ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:21:41

📌 judicious ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:22:32

📌 including the cerebellum, basal ganglia, and amygdala. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:23:47

📌 prefrontal cortex ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:24:31

📌 folly ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:25:01

📌 Most of the decisions we execute on the way to achieving those goals, however, occur in reflexive mind. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:27:53

📌 devoured ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:28:16

📌 missteps ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:29:27

📌 dismissive ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:29:49

📌 curt ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:30:57

📌 flouting ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:31:00

📌 swerving ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:32:15

📌 The challenge is not to change the way our brains operate but to figure out how to work within the limitations of the brains we already have. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:32:44

📌 reconciling ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:35:36

📌 etiquette ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:37:31

📌 eternity ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:38:08

📌 at stake ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:39:11

📌 interpolating ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:40:29

📌 poker players must learn from that jumbled mass of decisions and outcomes, separating the luck from the skill, the signal from the noise, and guarding against resulting. ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:41:39

📌 innate ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:42:19

📌 awe-inspiring ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:43:41

📌 immense ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:46:15

📌 bombers ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:49:04

📌 crumpled ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:52:23

📌 awry ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:52:11

📌 prestigious ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:53:46

📌 praise ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:54:16

📌 chronicled ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:55:11

📌 succinctly ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:56:17

📌 stripped-down ⏱ 2024-10-09 23:58:55

📌 bluffing ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:31:42

📌 dice ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:37:07

📌 bishop ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:36:44

📌 novice ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:43:48

📌 If we want to improve in any game—as well as in any aspect of our lives—we have to learn from the results of our decisions. ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:45:56

📌 tethers ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:47:19

📌 off-load ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:48:06

📌 leeway ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:48:57

📌 mischief ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:58:26

📌 lethal ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:58:33

📌 wits ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:58:39

📌 mastermind ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:59:25

📌 vanquished ⏱ 2024-10-10 16:59:36

📌 outdueled ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:00:16

📌 peril ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:00:07

📌 goblets ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:00:39

📌 roars ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:03:24

📌 blunders ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:03:00

📌 We make this same mistake when we look for lessons in life’s results. Our lives are too short to collect enough data from our own experience to make it easy to dig down into decision quality from the small set of results we experience ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:33:57

📌 evasive ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:40:04

📌 “I don’t know” is not a failure but a necessary step toward enlightenment. He backs this up with a great quote from physicist James Clerk Maxwell: “Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science.” ⏱ 2024-10-10 17:43:11

📌 notches ⏱ 2024-10-10 18:24:25

📌 raucous ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:08:36

📌 rooting them on ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:09:20

📌 Amid ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:11:10

📌 compassion ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:32:37

📌 sophisticated ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:48:22

📌 polls ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:49:55

📌 oddsmakers ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:55:12

📌 aggregation ⏱ 2024-10-12 10:58:02

📌 viscerally ⏱ 2024-10-12 11:01:49

📌 iteration ⏱ 2024-10-12 11:03:19

📌 intervened ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:35:36

📌 anorexia ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:39:18

📌 continuum ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:39:59

📌 calibrating ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:40:16

📌 A great poker player who has a good-size advantage over the other players at the table, making significantly better strategic decisions, will still be losing over 40% of the time at the end of eight hours of play. ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:48:56

📌 If you applied to NASA’s astronaut program or the NBC page program, both of which have drawn thousands of applicants for a handful of positions, things will go your way a minority of the time, but you didn’t necessarily do anything wrong.

• 💭 找工作也是这个道理，在这个充满不确定性的世界，我的做法可能是“复利”我自己，使得我在得到这个机会的时候能及时抓住它，也即超越“运气”这一成分的捉弄。 - ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:49:36

📌 The world is structured to give us lots of opportunities to feel bad about being wrong if we want to measure ourselves by outcomes ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:52:06

📌 aversion ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:52:29

📌 that losses in general feel about two times as bad as wins feel good ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:53:03

📌 wrap ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:54:28

CHAPTER 2: Wanna Bet?

📌 eccentric ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:57:23

📌 preceded ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:57:08

📌 allure ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:00:49

📌 graveyard ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:00:42

📌 good-natured ribbing ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:03:55

📌 nocturnal ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:02:49

📌 wager ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:04:34

📌 diabolical ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:05:30

📌 confine ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:05:42

📌 idleness ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:06:19

📌 torture ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:06:13

📌 entice ⏱ 2024-10-13 20:06:59

📌 detox ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:37:31

📌 curse ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:37:25

📌 explicit ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:42:12

📌 every decision has risks, regardless of whether we acknowledge them. Even a set salary is still not “guaranteed.” ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:48:02

📌 All those rejected alternatives are paths to possible futures where things could be better or worse than the path we chose. There is potential opportunity cost in any choice we forgo. ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:50:28

📌 dodged ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:56:28

📌 You have to put your money where your mouth is. ⏱ 2024-10-14 15:58:23

📌 The promise of this book is that if we follow the example of poker players by making explicit that our decisions are bets, we can make better decisions and anticipate (and take protective measures) when irrationality is likely to keep us from acting in our best interest. ⏱ 2024-10-14 16:00:29

📌 foreclose ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:03:50

📌 In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing. ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:09:16

📌 At stake in a decision is that the return to us (measured in money, time, happiness, health, or whatever we value in that circumstance) will be greater than what we are giving up by betting against the other alternative future versions of us. ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:11:11

📌 If we can find ways to become more comfortable with uncertainty, we can see the world more accurately and be better for it. ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:19:03

📌 Our bets are only as good as our beliefs ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:40:18

📌 veteran ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:21:27

📌 unleash ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:21:57

📌 part of the skill in life comes from learning to be a better belief calibrator, using experience and information to more objectively update our beliefs to more accurately represent the world ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:30:08

📌 astray ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:30:45

📌 maternal ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:41:29

📌 impending ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:44:23

📌 We form beliefs in a haphazard way, believing all sorts of things based just on what we hear out in the world but haven’t researched for ourselves. ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:45:56

📌 Findings from a multitude of research literatures converge on a single point: People are credulous creatures who find it very easy to believe and very difficult to doubt. In fact, believing is so easy, and perhaps so inevitable, that it may be more like involuntary comprehension than it is like rational assessment. ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:49:22

📌 The subjects were not equally likely to ignore some statements labeled “true” as they were to rely on some statements labeled “false.” ⏱ 2024-10-16 15:53:54

📌 goofy ⏱ 2024-10-16 16:15:05

📌 In fact, questioning what you see or hear can get you eaten. For survival-essential skills, type I errors (false positives) were less costly than type II errors (false negatives). ⏱ 2024-10-16 16:19:04

📌 We didn’t develop a high degree of skepticism when our beliefs were about things we directly experienced, especially when our lives were at stake. ⏱ 2024-10-16 16:19:13

📌 In this case, the system we already had was (1) experience it, (2) believe it to be true, and (3) maybe, and rarely, question it later. We may have more reasons to question this flood of secondhand information, but our older system is still in charge. ⏱ 2024-10-16 16:24:24

📌 camouflaged ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:45:05

📌 man ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:49:33

📌 subtlety ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:49:36

📌 merits ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:51:33

📌 sparingly ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:53:56

📌 starch ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:53:23

📌 Even though our default is “true,” if we were good at updating our beliefs based on new information, our haphazard belief-formation process might cause relatively few problems ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:55:46

📌 futility ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:58:10

📌 retraction ⏱ 2024-10-17 09:59:00

📌 verge ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:28:35

📌 contention ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:29:52

📌 concussion ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:31:55

📌 ferocity ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:32:38

📌 infractions ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:34:01

📌 editorials ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:34:56

📌 instilled ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:36:25

📌 asserted ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:36:49

📌 We do not simply ‘react to’ a happening. . . . We behave according to what we bring to the occasion.” ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:40:04

📌 homage ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:40:23

📌 halting ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:41:41

📌 earnest ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:46:53

📌 dissent ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:46:28

📌 intimidation ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:46:25

📌 interfere ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:46:22

📌 congruence ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:46:17

📌 Flaws ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:47:27

📌 Once a belief is lodged, it becomes difficult to dislodge ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:48:06

📌 motivated reasoning. The way we process new information is driven by the beliefs we hold, strengthening them. Those strengthened beliefs then drive how we process further information, and so on. ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:49:02

📌 abbreviated ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:49:55

📌 stealthily ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:50:07

📌 embellished ⏱ 2024-10-18 17:58:37

📌 potency ⏱ 2024-10-18 18:01:26

📌 entrenches ⏱ 2024-10-18 18:01:42

📌 The Internet is a playground for motivated reasoning. It provides the promise of access to a greater diversity of information sources and opinions than we’ve ever had available, yet we gravitate toward sources that confirm our beliefs, that agree with us. ⏱ 2024-10-18 18:03:44

📌 cater ⏱ 2024-10-18 18:06:09

📌 divined ⏱ 2024-10-18 18:06:13

📌 Information that disagrees with us is an assault on our self-narrative. ⏱ 2024-10-19 18:56:38

📌 swat ⏱ 2024-10-19 18:56:42

📌 How we form beliefs, and our inflexibility about changing our beliefs, has serious consequences because we bet on those beliefs ⏱ 2024-10-19 18:58:34

📌 parsing ⏱ 2024-10-19 18:59:09

📌 intuitive ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:00:03

📌 attenuate ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:14:14

📌 replicated ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:14:46

📌 numerate ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:28:37

📌 abate ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:27:21

📌 gush ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:32:18

📌 superlatives ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:32:16

📌 heels ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:32:39

📌 “Wanna bet?” triggers us to engage in that third step that we only sometimes get to. Being asked if we are willing to bet money on it makes it much more likely that we will examine our information in a less biased way, be more honest with ourselves about how sure we are of our beliefs, and be more open to updating and calibrating our beliefs. The more objective we are, the more accurate our beliefs become. And the person who wins bets over the long run is the one with the more accurate beliefs. ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:34:54

📌 caveats ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:35:16

📌 It’s a shame the social contract for poker players is so different than for the rest of us in this regard because a lot of good can result from someone saying, “Wanna bet?” Offering a wager brings the risk out in the open, making explicit what is already implicit (and frequently overlooked) ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:36:47

📌 throw the gauntlet down ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:37:37

📌 We can train ourselves to view the world through the lens of “Wanna bet?” ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:39:22

📌 Once we start doing that, we are more likely to recognize that there is always a degree of uncertainty, that we are generally less sure than we thought we were, that practically nothing is black and white, 0% or 100%. And that’s a pretty good philosophy for living. ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:39:17

📌 perpetual ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:39:49

📌 We would be better served as communicators and decision-makers if we thought less about whether we are confident in our beliefs and more about how confident we are. Instead of thinking of confidence as all-or-nothing (“I’m confident” or “I’m not confident”), our expression of our confidence would then capture all the shades of grey in between ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:42:53

📌 What if, in addition to expressing what we believe, we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would mean we are certain that our belief is true.

• 💭 但是我觉得这是一个无法量化的判断，只能是一个对自己的惊醒 - ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:45:20

📌 plausible ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:47:13

📌 By expressing our level of confidence in what we believe, we are shifting our approach to how we view the world. ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:50:49

📌 Acknowledging uncertainty is the first step in measuring and narrowing it. Incorporating uncertainty in the way we think about what we believe creates open-mindedness, moving us closer to a more objective stance toward information that disagrees with us. ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:51:19

📌 This shifts us away from treating information that disagrees with us as a threat, as something we have to defend against, making us better able to truthseek. ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:52:32

📌 hinges ⏱ 2024-10-20 11:13:40

📌 Outside of the poker room, when we declare something as 100% fact, others might be reluctant to offer up new and relevant information that would inform our beliefs for two reasons. First, they might be afraid they are wrong and so won’t speak up, worried they will be judged for that, by us or themselves. Second, even if they are very confident their information is high quality, they might be afraid of making us feel bad or judged. ⏱ 2024-10-20 11:17:30

📌 Admitting we are not sure is an invitation for help in refining our beliefs, and that will make our beliefs much more accurate over time as we are more likely to gather relevant information. ⏱ 2024-10-20 11:18:05

📌 akin ⏱ 2024-10-20 11:20:57

📌 engrained ⏱ 2024-10-20 11:24:08

CHAPTER 3: Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future

📌 steroids ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:01:57

📌 deuce ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:03:40

📌 subterfuge ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:04:40

📌 incongruity ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:05:17

📌 dipped into the till ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:07:37

📌 took that at face value ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:09:43

📌 novice ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:10:07

📌 The answer is that while experience is necessary to becoming an expert, it’s not sufficient ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:11:02

📌 We can’t just “absorb” experiences and expect to learn ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:12:31

📌 Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him

• 💭 写的非常好 - ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:18:35

📌 reprimanded ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:15:43

📌 myriad ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:16:03

📌 If we determine our decisions drove the outcome, we can feed the data we get following those decisions back into belief formation and updating, creating a learning loop ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:22:34

📌 Actively using outcomes to examine our beliefs and bets closes the feedback loop, reducing uncertainty. This is the heavy lifting of how we learn ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:24:18

📌 When the future coughs on us, it is hard to tell why. ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:44:10

📌 To reach our long-term goals, we have to improve at sorting out when the unfolding future has something to teach us, when to close the feedback loop. And the first step to doing this well is in recognizing that things sometimes happen because of the other form of uncertainty: luck.

⏱ 2024-10-23 16:49:47

📌 metabolism ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:54:50

📌 Chalk up an outcome to skill, and we take credit for the result. ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:56:27

📌 omniscience ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:59:46

📌 swapped in sugar for fat ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:03:23

📌 godsend ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:04:02

📌 ingest sugar-laden ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:05:12

📌 bandwagon ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:07:11

📌 Outcomes don’t tell us what’s our fault and what isn’t, what we should take credit for and what we shouldn’t. ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:08:59

📌 in which case ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:10:19

📌 leeway ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:11:53

📌 Classical stimulus-response experiments have shown that the introduction of uncertainty drastically slows learning. ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:13:01

📌 pellet ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:13:52

📌 intermittent ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:14:48

📌 reinforcement ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:14:51

📌 slot ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:16:30

📌 egregious ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:17:21

📌 swerve ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:17:49

📌 debris ⏱ 2024-10-23 17:18:53

📌 take credit for the good stuff and blame the bad stuff on luck so it won’t be our fault. The result is that we don’t learn from experience well. ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:00:03

📌 plausible ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:01:12

📌 flatters ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:01:40

📌 imbued ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:02:07

📌 collided ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:03:55

📌 swerve ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:04:48

📌 write this off ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:06:14

📌 terror ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:06:00

📌 collective gasp ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:09:40

📌 exempt ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:10:46

📌 taking credit for the good stuff ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:13:10

📌 downtrodden ⏱ 2024-10-24 16:16:41

📌 funhouse mirror ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:20:55

📌 luck looms giant ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:21:43

📌 Watching is an established learning method ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:26:55

📌 ante ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:29:11

📌 fraught ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:33:22

📌 clutched ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:53:58

📌 Even though I had access to the list writer, I never asked my brother why these guys were playing these off-list cards. My biased assessment of why they were winning slowed my learning down considerably ⏱ 2024-10-25 11:56:32

📌 knocking down ⏱ 2024-10-25 12:00:00

📌 schadenfreude ⏱ 2024-10-25 12:00:13

📌 Engaging the world through the lens of competition is deeply embedded in our animal brains. It’s not enough to boost our self-image solely by our own successes. If someone we view as a peer is winning, we feel like we’re losing by comparison. ⏱ 2024-10-25 12:08:23

📌 however, that “the general conclusion from almost a century of research on the determinants of well-being is that objective circumstances, demographic variables, and life events are correlated with happiness less strongly than intuition and everyday experience tell us they ought to be. ⏱ 2024-10-25 12:11:52

📌 But no amount of money in 1900 could buy Novocain or antibiotics or a refrigerator or air-conditioning or a powerful computer we could hold in one hand. About the only thing $70,000 bought in 1900 that it couldn’t buy today was the opportunity to soar above most everyone else.

• 💭 作者的观察角度很犀利 - ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:29:29

📌 lap the field ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:31:09

📌 A lot of the way we feel about ourselves comes from how we think we compare with others. This robust and pervasive habit of mind impedes learning. ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:32:41

📌 awash ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:34:59

📌 run-of-the-mill ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:36:24

📌 intricate ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:37:59

📌 Habits operate in a neurological loop consisting of three parts: the cue, the routine, and the reward. A habit could involve eating cookies: the cue might be hunger, the routine going to the pantry and grabbing a cookie, and the reward a sugar high ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:39:51

📌 To change a habit, you must keep the old cue, and deliver the old reward, but insert a new routine. ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:40:23

📌 Our brain is built to seek positive self-image updates. It is also built to view ourselves in competition with our peers. We can’t install new hardware. Working with the way our brains are built in reshaping habit has a higher chance of success than working against it. Better to change the part that is more plastic: the routine of what gives us the good feeling in our narrative and the features by which we compare ourselves to others. ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:43:03

📌 salivated ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:46:53

📌 legitimate ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:50:34

📌 spur ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:51:33

📌 Changing the routine is hard and takes work. But we can leverage our natural tendency to derive some of our self-esteem by how we compare to our peers ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:53:54

📌 Keep the reward of feeling like we are doing well compared to our peers, but change the features by which we compare ourselves: be a better credit-giver than your peers, more willing than others to admit mistakes, more willing to explore possible reasons for an outcome with an open mind, even, and especially, if that might cast you in a bad light or shine a good light on someone else. ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:54:28

📌 Identifying learning opportunities that other players were missing made me feel good about myself, reinforcing my routine change. ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:57:37

📌 It works against the way our brains evolved, against our competitive drive. As a parallel practice, the more practical and immediate solution is to work with what we’ve got, using that comparison to strengthen our focus on accuracy and truthseeking. Plus, we won’t have to give up our lives and find a remote mountaintop to live on.

• 💭 作者认为纳瓦尔推崇的正念练习难度很大，并且推荐了另外一种非常实用的自我观照的方法。我认为这都很好，只要能得到 reward 就是好方法。 - ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:59:48

CHAPTER 4: The Buddy System

📌 started off ⏱ 2024-10-29 13:58:51

📌 feud ⏱ 2024-10-29 13:58:28

📌 strained ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:00:05

📌 interjected ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:01:33

📌 puffy ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:02:16

📌 tailspin ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:02:13

📌 self-deprecating ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:03:05

📌 immortalized ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:04:27

📌 perceptive ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:05:52

📌 Such interactions are reminders that not all situations are appropriate for truthseeking, nor are all people interested in the pursuit. That being said, any of us who wants to get better at thinking in bets would benefit from having more David Lettermans in our lives. As the “original” Letterman learned from the awkward exchange with Lauren Conrad, Lettermanning needs agreement by both parties to be effective. ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:09:31

📌 rebels ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:11:20

📌 By choosing to exit the matrix, we are asserting that striving for a more objective representation of the world, even if it is uncomfortable at times, will make us happier and more successful in the long run ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:14:23

📌 But it’s a trade-off that isn’t for everyone; it must be freely chosen to be productive and sustainable. ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:15:27

📌 blunt ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:15:54

📌 good decision group is a grown-up version of the buddy system. To be sure, even with help, none of us will ever be able to perfectly overcome our natural biases in the way we process information ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:56:48

📌 Forming or joining a group where the focus is on thinking in bets means modifying the usual social contract. It means agreeing to be open-minded to those who disagree with us, giving credit where it’s due, and taking responsibility where it’s appropriate, even (and especially) when it makes us uncomfortable. ⏱ 2024-10-29 14:58:33

📌 cult ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:05:11

📌 Pilates ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:05:26

📌 opt out and off-load intense emotions ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:07:48

📌 sobriety ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:10:45

📌 exacerbate ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:14:41

📌 Confirmatory thought promotes a love and celebration of one’s own beliefs, distorting how the group processes information and works through decisions, the result of which can be groupthink. ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:17:28

📌 conjures up ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:18:33

📌 If you put individuals together in the right way, such that some individuals can use their reasoning powers to disconfirm the claims of others, and all individuals feel some common bond or shared fate that allows them to interact civilly, you can create a group that ends up producing good reasoning as an emergent property of the social system. ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:36:52

📌 I don’t want to hear it. I’m not trying to hurt your feelings, but if you have a question about a hand, you can ask me about strategy all day long. I just don’t think there’s much purpose in a poker story if the point is about something you had no control over, like bad luck.” ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:44:13

📌 move up in stakes or bankroll management ⏱ 2024-10-29 15:48:51

📌 experienced firsthand the power of a group’s approval to reshape individual thinking habits. I got my fix by trying to be the best credit-giver, the best mistake-admitter, and the best finder-of-mistakes-in-good-outcomes. The reward was their enthusiastic engagement and deep dives introducing me to the nuances of poker strategy ⏱ 2024-11-01 10:27:32

📌 terrific ⏱ 2024-11-01 10:34:47

📌 Accountability is a willingness or obligation to answer for our actions or beliefs to others. A bet is a form of accountability. ⏱ 2024-11-01 10:39:01

📌 dissent ⏱ 2024-11-01 10:52:42

📌 The only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject, is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion, and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner. ⏱ 2024-11-01 10:53:51

📌 polarization ⏱ 2024-11-01 11:04:44

📌 flaws ⏱ 2024-11-01 11:05:42

📌 raid ⏱ 2024-11-01 11:06:11

📌 we can’t know the truth of a matter without hearing the other side. ⏱ 2024-11-17 10:47:55

📌 We all tend to gravitate toward people who are near clones of us. ⏱ 2024-11-17 10:51:17

📌 Appellate ⏱ 2024-11-17 10:53:09

📌 heterogeneous and homogeneous ⏱ 2024-11-17 10:57:05

📌 plaintiffs ⏱ 2024-11-17 10:59:55

📌 endorsed ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:01:32

📌 furthest ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:11:33

📌 unprecedented ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:14:03

📌 descend ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:14:10

📌 discourse ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:15:06

📌 gravitating toward ⏱ 2024-11-17 11:16:20

📌 dogmatic ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:49:11

📌 epitomizes ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:51:30

📌 flaws ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:53:10

📌 If you have any doubt this is true for all of us, put this book down for a moment and check your Twitter feed for whom you follow. It’s a pretty safe bet that the bulk of them are ideologically aligned with you. If that’s the case, start following some people from the other side of the aisle ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:55:12

📌 replicate ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:55:53

📌 The way a scientist would be “right” in such a betting market is by using their skill in a superior way to make the most objective bets on whether results would or would not replicate. ⏱ 2024-11-18 14:59:13

📌 A lot of people were surprised to learn that the expert opinion expressed as a bet was more accurate than expert opinion expressed through peer review, since peer review is considered a rock-solid foundation of the scientific method. ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:14:30

📌 People are more willing to offer their opinion when the goal is to win a bet rather than get along with people in a room. ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:18:54

📌 gulf ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:21:24

CHAPTER 5: Dissent to Win

📌 acronym ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:24:19

📌 An ideologically balanced science that routinely resorted to adversarial collaborations to resolve empirical disputes would bear a striking resemblance to Robert Merton’s ideal-type model of a self-correcting epistemic community, one organized around the norms of CUDOS ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:26:49

📌 vigilance ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:29:21

📌 self-fulfilling prophecy ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:30:40

📌 spurred ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:33:40

📌 arrayed ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:35:08

📌 garb ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:35:06

📌 affiliations ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:35:18

📌 normative ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:35:45

📌 tinkered ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:35:52

📌 communal ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:38:15

📌 Merton argued that, in academics, an individual researcher’s data must eventually be shared with the scientific community at large for knowledge to advance

• 💭 就好像是各种开源 - ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:40:11

📌 Secrecy ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:40:35

📌 antithesis ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:40:49

📌 enactment ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:41:07

📌 Researchers are entitled to keep data private until published but once they accomplish that, they should throw the doors open to give the community every opportunity to make a proper assessment. ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:42:27

📌 pertinent ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:42:42

📌 abide ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:44:46

📌 Indulge ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:45:14

📌 Reward the process of pulling the skeletons of our own reasoning out of the closet ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:45:52

📌 As a rule of thumb, if we have an urge to leave out a detail because it makes us uncomfortable or requires even more clarification to explain away, those are exactly the details we must share.

• 💭 我时常会省略很多细节，来避免跟人解释。现在这种外部的阅读（学习）让我意识到share 的重要性 - ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:47:34

📌 pertinent ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:52:26

📌 we are all our own best PR agents, spinning a narrative that shines the most flattering light on us ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:53:45

📌 drastically ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:56:24

📌 seduction ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:56:49

📌 bandit ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:56:58

📌 duel ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:57:12

📌 query ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:59:27

📌 deficiencies ⏱ 2024-11-19 12:00:51

📌 fidelity ⏱ 2024-11-19 12:02:47

📌 layperson ⏱ 2024-11-19 12:03:20

📌 nitpicky ⏱ 2024-11-19 12:03:35

📌 protagonist ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:04:16

📌 don’t disparage or ignore an idea just because you don’t like who or where it came from. ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:05:08

📌 merit ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:07:20

📌 The accuracy of the statement should be evaluated independent of its source ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:07:47

📌 When I had the impulse to dismiss someone as a bad player, I made myself find something that they did well. ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:10:04

📌 tactics ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:10:20

📌 devise ⏱ 2024-12-07 09:11:53

📌 Another way to disentangle the message from the messenger is to imagine the message coming from a source we value much more or much less ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:14:56

📌 John Stuart Mill made it clear that the only way to gain knowledge and approach truth is by examining every variety of opinion. We learn things we didn’t know ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:20:53

📌 contagious ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:21:20

📌 culprit ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:21:46

📌 prestigious ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:23:07

📌 imperative ⏱ 2024-12-07 10:24:09

📌 disclosed ⏱ 2024-12-07 11:55:00

📌 omission ⏱ 2024-12-07 11:56:35

📌 We are not naturally disinterested. We don’t process information independent of the way we wish the world to be. ⏱ 2024-12-07 11:59:48

📌 Knowing how something turned out creates a conflict of interest that expresses itself as resulting. ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:02:40

📌 intuit ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:03:46

📌 plagued ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:12:38

📌 surmise ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:16:08

📌 Telling someone how a story ends encourages them to be resulters, to interpret the details to fit that outcome.

• 💭 爽文或者爽剧也是类似的道理，根据结果解释过程是一件符合人性但不符合理性的事情 - ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:17:38

📌 If the group is blind to the outcome, it produces higher fidelity evaluation of decision quality. ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:20:59

📌 Attorneys ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:21:44

📌 verdict ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:21:33

📌 After the outcome, make it a habit when seeking advice to give the details without revealing the outcome. ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:23:49

📌 so as not to ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:27:44

📌 shield our listeners from ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:30:07

📌 Another way a group can de-bias members is to reward them for skill in debating opposing points of view and finding merit in opposing positions ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:34:19

📌 stalemate ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:35:31

📌 The key is for the group to have a charter that rewards objective consideration of alternative hypotheses so that winning the debate feels better than supporting the pre-existing position. ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:36:50

📌 bum rap ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:49:25

📌 cynical ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:51:59

📌 Skepticism is about approaching the world by asking why things might not be true rather than why they are true. ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:53:16

📌 confrontational ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:23:46

📌 Expression of disagreement is, after all, just another way to express our own beliefs, which we acknowledge are probabilistic in nature. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:06:07

📌 overtly ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:07:30

📌 anonymous ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:09:59

📌 venue ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:27:17

📌 prevailing ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:28:03

📌 repercussions ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:28:11

📌 reticent ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:40:20

📌 oppositional ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:40:37

📌 get away with ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:44:12

📌 First, express uncertainty. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:48:53

📌 countervails ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:49:24

📌 Second, lead with assent. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:50:40

📌 affirmed ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:51:17

📌 rhetorical ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:54:13

📌 improvisation ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:56:16

📌 Yes” means you are accepting the construct of the situation. “And” means you are adding to it. That’s an excellent guideline in any situation in which you want to encourage exploratory thought. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:56:47

📌 Third, ask for a temporary agreement to engage in truthseeking. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:57:39

📌 If someone is off-loading emotion to us, we can ask them if they are just looking to vent or if they are looking for advice. If they aren’t looking for advice, that’s fine. ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:58:20

📌 opt ⏱ 2024-12-07 13:59:20

📌 Finally, focus on the future

• 💭 已经从好几本不同的书中反复看到了，确实是很重要的一点 - ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:01:38

📌 Rather than rehashing what has already happened, try instead to engage about what the person might do so that things will turn out better going forward. ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:04:12

📌 It’s harder to get defensive about something that hasn’t happened yet. ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:04:49

📌 kooky ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:05:19

📌 But the more likely result is that she would have engaged. And that focus on the future could get her to circle back to figure out why all the drama occurred

• 💭 How to persuade people to have a rational communication with me. - ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:07:41

📌 consent ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:10:08

📌 nudged ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:10:21

📌 precocious ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:10:42

📌 cutlery ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:10:59

📌 ways to use time-travel techniques for better decision-making. By recruiting past and future versions of yourself, you can become your own buddy. ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:13:58

CHAPTER 6: Adventures in Mental Time Travel

📌 villain ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:12:42

📌 liquefied ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:13:12

📌 blob ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:13:30

📌 continuum ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:14:10

📌 unravel ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:13:54

📌 When making decisions, isolating ourselves from thinking about similar decisions in the past and possible future consequences is frequently the very thing that turns us into a blob, mired by in-the-moment thinking where the scope of time is distorted ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:15:49

📌 collide ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:16:36

📌 Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them. ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:35:31

📌 groggy ⏱ 2024-12-08 14:58:10

📌 This tendency we all have to favor our present-self at the expense of our future-self is called temporal discounting ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:00:39

📌 drawdown ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:01:35

📌 lump-sum ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:02:09

📌 gratification ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:04:02

📌 discretionary ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:04:15

📌 deliberative ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:06:33

📌 make it up out of whole cloth ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:08:32

📌 Thinking about the future is remembering the future, putting memories together in a creative way to imagine a possible way things might turn out. ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:09:19

📌 hippocampus ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:10:06

📌 prefrontal cortex, which controls System 2, deliberative decision-making. ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:10:38

📌 stare into the void of our own mortality. ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:12:49

📌 detriment ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:14:25

📌 wrinkle ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:22:49

📌 ponder ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:29:13

📌 remorse ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:31:20

📌 smother ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:31:46

📌 To regret deeply is to live afresh ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:33:26

📌 But if regret occurred before a decision instead of after, the experience of regret might get us to change a choice likely to result in a bad outcome ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:39:26

📌 The approaches are complementary; whether you choose to travel to the past or travel to the future depends solely on what approach you find most effective. ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:57:42

📌 Every 10-10-10 process starts with a question. . . . [W]hat are the consequences of each of my options in ten minutes? In ten months? In ten years?” This set of questions triggers mental time travel that cues that accountability conversation (also encouraged by a truthseeking decision group). ⏱ 2024-12-08 15:58:46

📌 mitigate ⏱ 2024-12-08 16:02:53

📌 Coming to peace with a bad outcome in advance will feel better than refusing to acknowledge it, facing it only after it has happened. ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:48:33

📌 Time-travel strategies can help us remember that the intensity of what we feel now will subside over time ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:49:44

📌 ticker ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:50:46

📌 shredded ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:51:23

📌 drizzle ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:52:02

📌 bemoaning ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:52:49

📌 discourages us from ⏱ 2024-12-10 13:56:08

📌 glum ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:10:26

📌 The way we field outcomes is path dependent. It doesn’t so much matter where we end up as how we got there. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:11:10

📌 In relationships, even small disagreements seem big in the midst of the disagreement. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:14:27

📌 Tilt ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:17:06

📌 But for people involved in specialized activities, it’s worth it to be able to communicate a complex concept in a single word that laypeople would need lengthy phrases to convey. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:22:38

📌 jargon ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:22:46

📌 unhinged ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:24:27

📌 If you blow some recent event out of proportion and react in a drastic way, you’re on tilt. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:25:52

📌 jostled ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:26:38

📌 When the emotional center of the brain starts pinging, the limbic system (specifically the amygdala) shuts down the prefrontal cortex. We light up . . . then we shut down our cognitive control center. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:28:00

📌 incredulous ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:29:20

📌 inflection ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:29:57

📌 exasperation ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:29:43

📌 respiration ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:30:17

📌 We can precommit to walk away from the situation when we feel the signs of tilt, whether it’s a fight with a spouse or child, aggravation in a work situation, or losing at a poker table. We can take some space till we calm down and get some perspective, recognizing that when we are on tilt we aren’t decision fit. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:32:24

📌 Aphorisms ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:32:46

📌 Or we can gain perspective by asking how or whether this will have a real effect on our long-term happiness. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:34:31

📌 sniff out ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:34:56

📌 vigilance ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:35:14

📌 antiquity ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:45:23

📌 imperiling ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:46:52

📌 mast ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:48:42

📌 interfere ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:50:11

📌 drastically ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:52:19

📌 Regardless of the level of binding, precommitment contracts trigger a decision-interrupt. At the moment when we consider breaking the contract, when we want to cut the binding, we are much more likely to stop and think. ⏱ 2024-12-10 14:54:07

📌 The precommitments, however, provide a stop-and-think moment before acting, triggering the potential for deliberative thought. ⏱ 2024-12-10 15:07:47

📌 veering ⏱ 2024-12-10 15:42:29

📌 lodge ⏱ 2024-12-10 15:44:09

📌 Any sweeping term about someone, particularly when we equate our assessment of an idea with a sweeping personality or intellectual assessment of the person delivering the ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:32:31

📌 Any words or thoughts denying the existence of uncertainty should be a signal that we are heading toward a poorly calibrated decision. ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:35:40

📌 reconnaissance ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:45:50

📌 unprecedented ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:46:51

📌 terrain ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:47:32

📌 take a stab ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:53:23

📌 When faced with highly uncertain conditions, military units and major corporations sometimes use an exercise called scenario planning. The idea is to consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation. ⏱ 2024-12-11 10:54:32

📌 The more expert the player, the further into the future they plan ⏱ 2024-12-11 11:01:23

📌 the best strategists are considering a fuller range of possible scenarios, anticipating and considering the strategic responses to each, and so on deep into the decision tree. ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:09:46

📌 nimbler ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:11:57

📌 susceptible ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:12:44

📌 fall prey ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:14:56

📌 hindsight ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:15:16

📌 gloss over ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:14:50

📌 flying by the seat of their pants. ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:24:50

📌 contemplating ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:39:17

📌 When it comes to advance thinking, standing at the end and looking backward is much more effective than looking forward from the beginning. ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:40:10

📌 From where we stand, the present and the immediate future loom large. Anything beyond that loses focus. ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:43:21

📌 Imagining the future recruits the same brain pathways as remembering the past ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:55:13

📌 vantage ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:44:51

📌 paradigm ⏱ 2024-12-11 13:54:04

📌 They “found that prospective hindsight—imagining that an event has already occurred—increases the ability to correctly identify reasons for future outcomes by 30%.” ⏱ 2024-12-11 14:56:52

📌 barren land ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:02:33

📌 foliage ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:02:43

📌 The most common form of working backward from our goal to map out the future is known as backcasting ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:03:38

📌 tweaked ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:05:10

📌 regimen ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:08:02

📌 postmortem ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:09:12

📌 naysaying ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:10:07

📌 heckler ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:12:42

📌 procrastinate ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:18:54

📌 contrasting ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:21:16

📌 unrequited ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:22:34

📌 indulging ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:23:45

📌 The key to a successful premortem is that everyone feels free to look for those reasons, and they are motivated to scour everything ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:28:09

📌 Those who have reservations are less likely to have resentment or regret build if things don’t work out; their voices were represented in the strategic plan. ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:34:57

📌 nimble ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:38:35

📌 assimilate ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:39:23

📌 contingency ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:44:28

📌 In a way, backcasting without premortems is a form of temporal discounting ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:46:39

📌 we’ll more than compensate for giving up that immediate gratification ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:48:56

📌 Forgetting about an unrealized future can be dangerous to good decision-making. ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:49:47

📌 keeping events in perspective ⏱ 2024-12-11 15:57:49

📌 overriding ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:02:12

📌 ever-advancing present ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:12:56

📌 obliterates ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:11:03

📌 twigs ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:11:59

📌 and all the other branches, no matter how thick they were, disappear from view. ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:14:49

📌 That’s hindsight bias, an enemy of probabilistic thinking. ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:15:12

📌 impair ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:17:54

📌 punitive ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:18:42

📌 foreman ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:21:03

📌 hindsight bias—the human tendency to believe that whatever happened was bound to happen ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:22:09

📌 imminent ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:22:19

📌 lopped off ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:23:11

📌 protagonists ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:25:14

📌 had been consumed with regret ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:29:33

📌 wood-chipper ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:30:23

📌 amok ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:30:37

📌 pollsters ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:32:46

📌 spun ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:33:38

📌 severed ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:34:31

📌 junkies ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:35:57

📌 wean ourselves from that addiction ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:36:13

📌 Life, like poker, is one long game, and there are going to be a lot of losses, even after making the best possible bets. ⏱ 2024-12-11 16:37:45

读书笔记

CHAPTER 1: Life Is Poker, Not Chess

划线评论

📌 If you applied to NASA’s astronaut program or the NBC page program, both of which have drawn thousands of applicants for a handful of positions, things will go your way a minority of the time, but you didn’t necessarily do anything wrong. - 💭 找工作也是这个道理，在这个充满不确定性的世界，我的做法可能是“复利”我自己，使得我在得到这个机会的时候能及时抓住它，也即超越“运气”这一成分的捉弄。 - ⏱ 2024-10-13 19:51:28

CHAPTER 2: Wanna Bet?

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📌 What if, in addition to expressing what we believe, we also rated our level of confidence about the accuracy of our belief on a scale of zero to ten? Zero would mean we are certain a belief is not true. Ten would mean we are certain that our belief is true. - 💭 但是我觉得这是一个无法量化的判断，只能是一个对自己的惊醒 - ⏱ 2024-10-19 19:46:03

CHAPTER 3: Bet to Learn: Fielding the Unfolding Future

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📌 Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him - 💭 写的非常好 - ⏱ 2024-10-23 16:19:09

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📌 But no amount of money in 1900 could buy Novocain or antibiotics or a refrigerator or air-conditioning or a powerful computer we could hold in one hand. About the only thing $70,000 bought in 1900 that it couldn’t buy today was the opportunity to soar above most everyone else. - 💭 作者的观察角度很犀利 - ⏱ 2024-10-25 16:29:59

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📌 It works against the way our brains evolved, against our competitive drive. As a parallel practice, the more practical and immediate solution is to work with what we’ve got, using that comparison to strengthen our focus on accuracy and truthseeking. Plus, we won’t have to give up our lives and find a remote mountaintop to live on. - 💭 作者认为纳瓦尔推崇的正念练习难度很大，并且推荐了另外一种非常实用的自我观照的方法。我认为这都很好，只要能得到 reward 就是好方法。 - ⏱ 2024-10-25 17:03:35

CHAPTER 5: Dissent to Win

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📌 Merton argued that, in academics, an individual researcher’s data must eventually be shared with the scientific community at large for knowledge to advance - 💭 就好像是各种开源 - ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:40:30

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📌 As a rule of thumb, if we have an urge to leave out a detail because it makes us uncomfortable or requires even more clarification to explain away, those are exactly the details we must share. - 💭 我时常会省略很多细节，来避免跟人解释。现在这种外部的阅读（学习）让我意识到share 的重要性 - ⏱ 2024-11-19 11:48:57

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📌 Telling someone how a story ends encourages them to be resulters, to interpret the details to fit that outcome. - 💭 爽文或者爽剧也是类似的道理，根据结果解释过程是一件符合人性但不符合理性的事情 - ⏱ 2024-12-07 12:18:48

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📌 Finally, focus on the future - 💭 已经从好几本不同的书中反复看到了，确实是很重要的一点 - ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:02:13

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📌 But the more likely result is that she would have engaged. And that focus on the future could get her to circle back to figure out why all the drama occurred - 💭 How to persuade people to have a rational communication with me. - ⏱ 2024-12-07 14:09:17

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